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In this section:  Chance or Design?   The Scientific Method Life in a Test Tube? The Eye Irreducible Complexity Anything Can Happen? Evolution or Selection? Real Examples of Evolution "Do You Feel Lucky?" (Abio)Genesis 1:1 Life from Comets? Life on Mars? Richard Dawkins A Brief History of Slime...

Just evolution or just incredible?


We're told that little by little, changes in simple life forms resulted in everything coming together in such perfect order.

What are the probabilities involved in this?

Let's start small and work our way up . . .


One object can be arranged just one way, computed as 1 x 1
Two objects can be arranged two ways,


computed as 2 x 1, since red or yellow can be first, with one choice remaining.
So, if you were asked to guess the proper sequence for three objects, you would only have a one in six chance of getting it right.






This is based on 3 x 2 x 1, since either the red, yellow or green can be first, with two choices remaining each time.

So the number of ways that any group of N objects can be arranged is:

N x (N-1) x (N-2) x  . . .   x 1

Thus, 4 objects can be arranged in 24 ways (i.e., 4 x 3 x 2 x 1)

and 5 objects can be arranged in 120 ways (i.e., 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1)


We're told that the earth was formed 4,600,000,000 years ago and the universe began 15,000,000,000 years ago.  These seems like pretty big numbers, and  pretty long periods of time during which anything could have happened.

When viewed from the perspective of probabilities, however, it's just a flash in the pan.  The number of ways a deck of just 52 cards can be arranged is about:

80,658,175,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

That's 80 million trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion.


EXPLORE

The other view: Abiogenesis

DNA

Your DNA has over 3 billion base pairs of 4 separate chemicals.  Can you imagine what odds must be involved in sequencing them into perfect order in a mere 4.5 billion years through chance and adaptation alone!


Go ahead.  Make my day. (Clint Eastwood)

Before deciding that Divine Creation isn't needed to explain our existence, there's something we all need to ask about the hand that evolution is dealing us.  As Clint Eastwood said in "Dirty Harry,"

"You've got to ask yourself one question:
Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya?"

Pick a God  . . . uh . . . card, any card!

Now even despite great odds, a given hand will of course still occur.  Life, however, is not just a random draw from a deck of chemical cards, but a precisely assembled house of cards built from specific combinations of components.

But isn't evolution a fact?

The Other Side of Common Beliefs
Common Beliefs

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In this section:
Chance or Design?   The Scientific Method Life in a Test Tube? The Eye Irreducible Complexity Anything Can Happen? Evolution or Selection? Real Examples of Evolution "Do You Feel Lucky?" (Abio)Genesis 1:1 Life from Comets? Life on Mars? Richard Dawkins A Brief History of Slime...

 

 


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